2022 Confederate Memo on Defence

The 2022 Confederate Memo on Defence was a White Paper that consisted of a major review of Arcerion's defense policy initiated by the newly formed government under Prime Minister Iain Donnegal. The review was led by the Right Honourable Clark Hart, AS, MP, AMM, a retired infantry officer who had previously served with the Arcer Army. The document itself centred on the requirement to create a new, more flexible and responsive defence force, capable of conducting peackeepeing operations in the wake of an ongoing Varshan conflict, as well as support to civil authority missions (ie. CIMIC, Civil-Military-Cooperation) with the influx of Varshani refugees. This was coupled with the overall assessment that the armoured forces of Arcerion must be divested and turned over into lighter and more effective motorized forces.

It also had the specific point of emphasizing that Arcerion "would only undertake major expeditionary operations that are provoked by a grave threat to the national interest." The 2022 announcement of the review and the publication of its findings were intended by PM Donnegal to reinforce Arcerion's position in Southern Crona.

The paper was also coupled during an increased time of tension between Arcerion and the Cape, specifically over the diplomatic maneuverings of Arcerion in forming the Southern Crona Congress, aimed at increasing cooperation. This was seen as a diplomatic and potential military challenge to the Cape's control over the Songun Straits, a key economic and strategic chokepoint in Crona.

Summary Findings
The principal findings that the Arcer Army was well equipped for a future conflict against a peer actor or a near-peer actor, as its participation in the Varshan War, specifically Operation Pullman would highlight. However, the continued investment into heavy mechanized forces was a critical error considering Arcerion's position in Southern Crona. To the North, the nations of Kelekona, Telekona, and Titechaxha posed to true peer threat towards Arcerion's interests. The New Archduchy also was an economic and diplomatic ally, with close political ties including the Arcer Agreement on Aerospace patrolling for the small Levantine nation. To the South, the nation of Paulastra was one of Arcerion's closest allies and a major trading partner, and Washakara was neglibigble in terms of military strength. This meant that major mechanized and armoured formations focusing on capital equipment such as heavy self-propelled artillery and main battle tanks should be divested in order to ensure the Army met a cost efficient solution for its actual requirements. As well, it emphasized a drastic upscale of Arcerion's use of unamanned aerial systems (UAS) at the tactical and operational level, an increased procurement of loitering munitions, next generation anti-tank missile acquisition, and a more robust command and control (C2) infrastructure to allow motorized infantry units supported by anti-tank formations to remain flexible. Hart's assessment also was that any major operations on Arcerion soil would require the rapid mobilization and deployment of the Army Reserve, and as such the military should seek to increase their Reserve component by up tp %40, using funds from divested heavy mechanized formations. As well, lighter and more training-intensive formations such as 11 Brigade (Parachute) should be given additional battalions or provided with the opportunity to begin standing up additional air assault and airborne regiments to form additional brigades of troops that could conduct airfield seizure and vertical envelopment tasks. For the Navy, the plans to replace the aging Kurst, the nation's carrier were formalized. It would be replaced by a pair of helicopter carriers, and the Kurst given a lfife cycle upgrade and placed in a reserve capacity where it could be called up to serve rapidly in the event of a shooting war. Smaller frigates and patrol crafts, focusing on a rbosut CIWS and anti-ship missile (AShM) procurement would help force project Arcerion interests in the Songun and Malentine Seas. Maritime patrol aircraft were recommended to be upgraded or replaced, as the aging P-4 fleet was reaching the end of its recommended flight hours and maintenance costs were rising rapidly. Hart's review also recommended that the Navy upgrade or replace its aging shore-based missile and radar infrastructure, most of which was of 1990s vintage with little attention or funding given since then to upgrade or replace said systems. Finally, the Navy was recommended to complete a comprehensive overhaul of the subsurface fleet, and the proposition for new shallow-water diesel electric submarines was to be drafted and tendered within the next 24 months as recommended.

Strategic Outlook
The recommendations resulted in a major strategic shift for Arcerion's procurement strategy. Projects such as the Next-Generation Main Battle Tank Replacement were abandoned in favour of life cycle and upgrade programs, whereas solutions to a new wheeled vehicle were placed for tender. For small arms, vendors were encouraged and funded by the Arcer government and Ministry of Defense to create new anti-tank missile systems, as well as further find ways to make infantry and their supporting echelons more effective. Arcer Armament Industries (AAI) began to place bids on the Light and Medium UAS contracts that would equip the Army's Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) companies. On the procurement side for the government's capital projects teams, the recommendation emphasized a closer working relationship with partially-nationalized corporations such as AAI, and inviting foreign weapons and arms manufacturers to build their new facilities in Arcerion even if in the short- to medium-term Arcerion did not purchase their goods, the research and development opportunities could pay dividends.

Diplomatically, the Defence Memo made it clear that an increase in cooperation with other notable Cronan nations such as Paulastra and Alstin (of which Arcerion shared cultural heritage) would breed considerable dividends for future operations or missions within the region. Concurrently, it identified that the Cape's current government was incompatible with a peaceful South Crona, and directly would come to conflict with continued diplomatic ties that brought nations closer.

To accommodate for anti-piracy and freedom of maritime commerce, the recommendation for several Joint Naval Stations to be set up in cooperation with Stenza and Caphiria were emphasized, as this would provide the maritime patrol squadrons and surface fleet with bases from which to ensure commerce flowed freely to and from the Songun Straits.

For the refugee crisis to the North stemming from the Varshan conflict, peacekeeping operations and an increased border presence options were presented to the Prime Minister, with the aim to shield and protect Arcer economic and humanitarian infrastructure from being overtly damaged by the Cronan conflict.

Restructuring of the Army
One of the pieces that was most critical of the current military infrastructure was the emphasis on how to restructure the Arcer Army. Hart emphasized that the next war would likely be beyond Arcerion's borders, and as such the need for air-transportable, mobile troops was paramount. To this end, the shift towards motorised, light, and air-transportable brigades was outlined as the key factor in this. Additionally, giving each Brigade and its parent organization, be that a multi-national coalition or an independent Arco Expeditionary Force, as many enablers as possible, mainly in the realm of sensors, such as additional companies of ISR, Electronic Warfare (EW), and Light Armoured Reconnaissance (LAR) formations. The lead brigades outlined to champion this initiative were 11 Brigade (Parachute), and 3 Brigade, which would end its mechanised time by being soon reorganised into a light infantry formation.

Hart also recommended Arcerion increase the size of its NCO Corps, and change NCO education to provide 1-year college degrees to Warrant Officers and above as casualties during the Varshan conflict had shown that officers and command posts were vulnerable in a non-permissive rear area. By educating NCOs, the Army could ensure it remained agile and decentralized on the battlefield.

Increase of Capital Procurements
After the Defence memo was published, the following projects were halted, cancelled, or created:
 * Next-Generation Main Battle Tank Procurement - Cancelled
 * Light UAS Project - Started
 * Medium UAS Project - Started
 * Shoulder Launched Anti-Armour Weapon (Light) - Started
 * Modular Anti-Armour System - Started
 * Next-Generation Infantry Mobility Vehicle (Medium) - Started
 * Battlefield Command and Control Network Project - Started
 * Surface Aircraft Carrier Replacement - Cancelled
 * Arcerion Fighter Interceptor Project - Halted

Inter-service Coordination Issues
The Defence Memo also highlighted that while the services performed adequately when coordinating on deployed operations, there was serious issues with training and domestic operational coordination. This is partially as deployed operations were moved administratively under the Joint Expeditionary Operational Command (JEOC), which had been responsible for the deployment, sustainment and conduct of missions outside of Arcer borders since its inception after the 2nd Great War. However, within Arcerion, the services consistently failed to cooperate or coordinate on procurement, training, or sustainment of joint forces. This extended everywhere from small arms procurement up to and including major training exercises that were supposed to be annually cumulative verifications of major Arcer formations.

Implementation
The implementation of the Memo's recommendations is ongoing, with the biggest changes occurring within the Arcer Army. The Navy, while slow to adopt the recommendations, made some considerable changes to the Naval Air Service, notably the amount of maritime patrol and Anti-Submarine Warfare aircraft, and began lifespan upgrades earlier than recommended by the manufacturer. From a government and policy perspective, the Confederate Parliament was slow to react initially, however after the deployment and relative success of Arcer formations in the Varshan conflict (Operation Pullman), they saw that despite the victories won by the Army and Air Force, there was room for improvement and some casualties and setbacks during the campaign could have been avoided with a more swift implementation of the 2022 Memo's recommendations.