2030 Urcean elections

The 2030 Urcean elections were held on Tuesday, November 5, 2030.

The long term consequences of the 2015 Urcean political realignment, establishment of the Solidarity Party, and Final War of the Deluge reduced the Urcean political spectrum back to just two large parties by 2030 - the Solidarity Party and National Pact. Both the Procuratorial and Concilium Daoni elections were presented by both major parties as a referendum on the leadership of Livio Iarnán. Solidarity argued that, though many of the large scale reforms had not been achieved, Iarnán steadily governed the country in the wake of the Final War of the Deluge and had implemented many sensible reforms which gestured at broader changes. The National Pact had several arguments related to his leadership, namely that he did not deliver on his promises, that his promises were too radical for Urcea, and that peacetime required a return to the constitutionally-oriented, stable leadership of the National Pact.

Livio Iarnán won reelection easily, defeating the National Pact's Daoni leader Conner Scipio Salderio by 14 points. It was the largest victory in a Procuratorial election since the 2015 Urcean elections and the second largest of the 21st century, only trailing 2015. In the Daoni, Solidarity was returned with a slightly reduced majority, and the National Pact only made minor gains. The Working Families Party - which broke away from the Social Labor Party during the 2026-30 term - was a major election night surprise, gaining 13 seats and becoming the third largest party. The Social Labor Party continued its steady decline in the Daoni since the 2015 election.

Procurator
For the second election in a row, the nomination process for Procurator for both major parties was uncontentious. For Solidarity, incumbent Procurator and Chancellor Livio Iarnán was popular among party members and unopposed. For the National Pact, Daoni leader Conner Scipio Salderio had been the consensus choice for several years and won all provincial primaries in the leadup to the election. He only received minor opposition, and his smallest provincial primary victory was 58.6%.

The previously competitive Social Labor Party failed to field a candidate in the 2030 Procuratorial election. Party leader Finn Deáin ran for the seat again, having been the Party's nominee in the 2025 Urcean elections, but his leadership remained divisive among party members, and he won only 40% of delegates, a plurality but not the majority necessary to secure the nomination. Following a contentious party convention, the party voted to not nominate a candidate at all as a compromise to maintain the existence of the party.

The two minor parties that held seats in the Daoni - the Working Families Party and Levantine National Party - both opted to not conduct a nomination process for Procurator.

Daoni leadership
All three major parties retained their sitting Daoni leaders; Livio Iarnán for Solidarity, Conner Scipio Salderio for the Pact, and Finn Deáin for the Social Labor Party. Only Deáin received a challenge, and, including himself, he managed to secure the vote of 4 of the 6 elected SLP delegates and retained floor leadership of the party after the election.

Leadership of Iárnan
As incumbent Procurator and Chancellor, Livio Iarnán (Solidarity) occupied a central place in the Urcean political system not held by an individual in two decades. Accordingly, both Solidarity and the rival National Pact made Iarnán the central issue in the 2030 elections, transforming the entire down-ballot election into a referendum on his leadership.

Iarnán, entering his tenth year as leader of the Daoni and fifth as incumbent Procurator, had a decent level of support coming into the 2030 election season, but not an overwhelming public mandate: his approval rating sat at 52% on 1 January 2030. Most major political analysts projected that Iarnán was in a "good, but not great" position for reelection, and that much of the year's result would depend on the intricacies of the campaign. Iarnán's opponents, both from the right and left, leveled two main accusations at him which became the focus of the ensuing campaign despite continued efforts by Solidarity to change the narrative. The two main issues related to his leadership were the slow pace of reforms promised in the 2025 Urcean elections as well as if Iarnán personally was too radical or dangerous to the constitutional order.

These issues both met with mixed responses by the Urcean electorate. Despite ambiguous fundamentals on some issues, constant exposure in the press and discourse had the effect of improving Iarnán's popular image, increasing his approval rating to 55% in election night exit polls. An election night exit poll of registered National Pact voters found that 63% thought too much emphasis was placed on Iarnán personally rather than the potential positives the National Pact and Salderio had, and 70% thought that the constant discourse surrounding Iarnán had increased his relevancy in everyday life.

Pace of reforms
During the 2025 Urcean elections, Iarnán and Solidarity made significant campaign promises both related to implementation of the Model Economy as well as electoral reform. Neither came to be during the 2026-30 term, although the Model Economy was implemented as a. Although the National Pact opposed both of these issues, its top leaders nonetheless seized on these two issues in particular to demonstrate Iarnán was an ineffective leader and that the Solidarity-led Daoni was a "do-nothing" body for the 2026-30 session. These attacks were amplified from the left, a constituency which supported both measures, stating that Iarnán had misled the public on these reforms and had no intention of fully delivering either item. By February, a series of television, internet, and radio ads run by both the Pact and Social Labor Party began to have a noticeable impact on polling figures, with a 22 Feburary 2030 poll of Urceans indicating that only 34% of Urceans believing that Iarnán was "fully capable" of delivering on his electoral promises. After months of trying to change the narrative, Iarnán's campaign team decided for a rightward shift on the issue beginning in mid-May, running 30-second commercials describing the history of Urcea's constitutional development that concluded with questions like "would it be wise to undo it in five years?". After some initial success in these efforts, Iarnán began to be cast by party leaders and in advertisements as a "thoughtful, deliberate leader" who "sought improvements to our system" but not as an "overnight leader". In contrast, attack ads began in early June and ran for the rest of the year painting the National Pact's nominee, Conner Scipio Salderio, as ineffective, pointing to a lack of successful legislative initiatives in the Daoni and painting him as a "do-nothing career politician" in the phrasing of one ad. For the remainder of the campaign, these narratives were used to counter the pacing issue. It did not fully resonate with Urceans - only 41% of Urceans thought Iarnán was "fully capable" of delivering on reforms as of election day - but it had the effect of making the issue less central to the campaign.

Accusations of radicalism
Throughout the campaign, and dating back to the 2020 Urcean elections, many attacks - both from National Pact leaders and from campaign ads - painted Livio Iarnán as a political radical. These attacks also focused on the reforms proposed over the previous legislative term and before, but focused instead on the content of the policies. In particular, Iarnán's preference for being called "Chancellor" rather than "Procurator" were highlighted on many occasions of evidence for the leader's "disdain" for the constitution. Proposed changes to the apportionment system of the Daoni also led to Iarnán being accused of wanting to manipulate the electoral system unethically in favor of Solidarity. Although these attacks were ineffective, election day exit polls nevertheless indicated 40% of Urceans believed Iarnán was "mostly or somewhat" uncomfortable with the Urcean constitution.

Some National Pact officials and their allies took a different approach. Their argument, elucidated both in public and through commercials and other means, was that Iarnán's "hands-on" style of leadership served the country well during the Final War of the Deluge specifically and Cronan upheavel generally, but as the crisis had passed, it was time for a new leader. This leader, they argued, should put a prime focus on normal constitutional procedure and restore a cultural sense of political normalcy. This argument was used largely by moderate members of the Pact in districts vulnerable to swinging to the Solidarity Party. In this vein, the younger age of Salderio was posed as a "step beyond" the Deluge into a new era for Urcea. This approach did not work as well as constitutional concerns, as election night exit polls indicated that 62% of Urceans believed that the next Procurator should be "partly or very hands-on" with respect to the Crona issue specifically, and 70% of Urceans indicated that they didn't think Urcea's work in Crona was complete.

Post-war recovery
The state of both Urcea and its occupied territories in the years following the Final War of the Deluge were a major issue in the 2030 elections.

Domestically, the nation's mobilization had temporarily boosted the economy, but trade uncertainty and the slowing of mobilization in 2024 after the Fall of Anzo led to the beginning of a minor recession that year and throughout 2025 and 2026 as well. The recession was followed by a slow recovery, and Iarnán's administration received criticism in the argument that the administration did not know how to oversee a peacetime economy. Abroad, cultural, economic, and physical reconstruction of most nations aligned with Urcea in Crona still continued as of 2030. The League of Nations occupation of Varshan entered its sixth year. While the Algosh Republic had been partly reconstructed and held its first full elections concurrently with Urcea's, a significant amount of public resources were being sent to Crona. The National Pact began to make the argument in 2029 that a sharp winddown of aid by 2032 would have the intended effect of building self-sufficiency in the Nysdra region by necessity, while Solidarity and the minor parties pushed against this notion, stating that such a cut off would adversely affect relations with Urcea's Cronan allies.

Exit polls on election night showed consensus among members of all parties that Urcea "needs to stay the course" in Crona (64% of all Urceans said so), although Solidarity members were willing to commit to many more years than members of any other party. With respect to the domestic economy, voters were more divided. 48% of Urceans - a plurality - thought Solidarity "needed to recommit to domestic economic growth" beyond just an ideological commitment to the Model Economy.

Model Economy
Beyond its relative novelty, the merits of the Model Economy were also heavily debated over the course of the election campaign. Solidarity members and spokesmen continually touted the program, particularly with advertisements aimed at traditionally left-voting constituencies. The program, not as relevant in suburban and exurban communities, received constant attention on talk shows and in commercials in big city areas, including and especially the valualbe Urceopolis-area districts. Overall, among working-class Urceans, the program polled well, with 62% of self-descibed "working class" or "blue collar" Urceans supporting the program as of 1 June 2030, a figure that increased slightly to 64% in election day exit polling. The National Pact derided the program in middle and upper middle class demographics and in the suburbs and exurbs, stating that it amounted to the "slow creep of Ardmori famine creeping into our society" in the words of Pact delegate Cormac Widdle. The Social Labor Party derided the policy as a "cooption", while members of the Working Families Party were generally in favor of it. Overall, the Pact failed to develop the policy as a wedge issue among its base, with only 30% of Pact voters on election day saying they were "very" or "somewhat" concerned about the ideological implications of the Model Economy, while 82% of registered Solidarity voters at the polls expressed support for the policy.

Procurator
The 2030 election for Procurator broke down largely among traditional lines, with the western more populous provinces favoring the National Pact with the Solidarity party winning many of the suburban provinces and the traditional heartland of the old Julian Party. The Pact won the Archduchy of Urceopolis for its tenth consecutive election, albeit by a slim margin. The Social Labor Party not fielding a candidate allowed Livio Iarnán to win many traditionally left-wing urban areas in Solidarity's best provinces.

Iarnán won a majority of voters in 21 provinces as opposed to just 13 for Salderio. Although Iarnán's performance in the center and western part of the country likely would have secured him a victory, much of his nearly 15% lead over Salderio came from Solidarity's traditional bases of support, many of which went for Iarnán by more than 70%. These traditionally Julian Party-supporting voters, on election night exit polls, cited the National Pact's uneasiness with the role of the Apostolic King, Riordan VIII, in Cronan affairs as a major motivator for turning out to vote for Iarnán.

Daoni
After a decade and a half of major swings occurring in the Daoni beginning with the 2015 Urcean elections, the 2030 election presented largely a return to form for Urcean politics to the 1990s and early 2000s, with less than 50 total seats changing parties.

Governors
As a result of low turnout and the relatively sedated issues debated on the national stage, no incumbent governors were defeated, the first time such an occurrence had taken place since 1970. The National Pact gained the governorship of Westglen from a retiring Solidarity governor.

Turnout
Turnout in the 2030 Urcean elections sat at around 58.2%, a relatively low turnout year for most Urcean elections. Several possible reasons for this have been posited by analysts and pundits, including the seeming inevitability of a close Solidarity victory, the focus on Livio Iarnán's personality rather than any pertinent issue, and the stability of the economy.

Few changes for the Pact
Despite making only minor gains in the Concilium Daoni and a lopsided defeat in the Procuratorial election, most National Pact leaders and party-associated pundits believed that the party had performed reasonably well against a popular incumbent in a time of economic and geopolitical stability. Although he pledged he would not run for Procurator again in 2035, Conner Scipio Salderio was unanimously reelected as the party's Daoni leader. As of 1 March 2031, Salderio retained high favorability ratings (82%) among the party's registered members. Many in the party were quick to note that Salderio's percentage in defeat actually exceeded the percent total that Bridget Farrell received in her victorious 2020 Procuratorial campaign. Ideologically, the Pact continued to commit itself to a stalwart defense of the constitution against perceived excesses, both in favor of the government and King, of its main rival, the Solidarity Party.

Working Families emerges
The major election night surprise was the 13 seat gain of the Working Families Party, a relatively minor political party whose Daoni members split from the Social Labor Party in 2026. The Party's left wing, religious-friendly message resonated with some voters who had traditionally been part of the left wing of the defunct Commonwealth Union. After the 2030 election, it had 18 seats, making it the third largest in the Daoni. Its 13 pickups came equally from the Social Labor Party and Solidarity Party in heavily urbanized areas.

The victorious night for the Working Families Party had the effect of being another episode on the path of the "seemingly inevitable" dissolution of the Social Labor Party by the end of the 2030s according to most pundits.