2038 Urcean institutional referendum

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Urcean institutional referendum, 2038
Date2 Feb 2038
Votes %
Retain the Monarchy 697,460,668 86.40%
Establish a Republic 109,785,475 13.60%
Valid votes 807,246,143 99.88%
Invalid or blank votes 1,002,258 0.12%
Total votes 808,248,401 100.00%
The total votes cast in this referendum represented a 72.5% turnout of Urcea's voting age population.

The 2038 Urcean institutional referendum, also known as the Crown referendum within Urcea, was a referendum that took place in Urcea on 2 February 2038. Following six months of campaigning, the referendum returned an overwhelming majority in support of retaining the Monarchy. At 72.5% turnout, it was among the most participated electoral events in the history of the constitutional era.


Political realignment

2037 Cetsencalia affair

In the summer of 2037, leader of the Social Labor Party Ronan Cornelius Marcán announced that the party was in possession of King Riordan VIII's correspondence with regards to Urcea's occupation of Cetsencalia in 2035. Leader Marcán produced documents reportedly between the King and Procurator James Fallshade in which the King wrote to the Procurator that the Sons of Levantia invasion of Cetsencalia "presented...opportunities which Urcea could exploit", leading to the eventual annexation of the territory in late 2035. Marcán called for an emergency platform meeting of the Social Labor Party, which adopted abolition of the monarchy and establishment of a Urcean Republic as part of its formal platform.

Legislation and referendum question

Following the adoption of republicanism as part of the Social Labor Party (SLP) platform in early September 2037, several high profile efforts were made by party members in the Concilium Daoni to bring attention to the issue. Primarily, several SLP delegates attempted to introduce what are known as "hostile amendments", which are unauthorized and often unrelated amendments to legislation brought before the Daoni. Fourteen such attempts were lodged between 14 September and 28 September. On 28 September, following a conference between National Pact and Union for National Solidarity leadership, a hostile amendment calling for a referendum on the monarchy lodged by the SLP was unexpectedly accepted on an unrelated local bill and passed with support from both parties. The move caught Social Labor leadership off guard, and Ronan Cornelius Marcán denounced Chancellor and Temporary President Bridget Farrell as using "underhanded tricks" to "undermine a fair and democratic process". The law was approved by Procurator James Fallshade and the referendum was suddenly set for 2 February. During the vote, members of the Julian Party announced the referendum to be illegal considering that the Concilium Daoni did not have sovereignty apart from that constitutionally granted by the Apostolic King of Urcea, and consequently that the Daoni could not authorize a vote to dissolve its own source of sovereign power.

The question included in the 28 September Act asked "Should Urcea retain the Apostolic Monarchy or abolish it in favor of a Republic?", language drafted by Social Labor Party leadership. The answers, "Retain the Monarchy" or "Establish a Republic" were also included in most of the initial hostile amendments proposed by the Social Labor Party.

Referendum campaign

On 1 October, two opposing official campaigns related to the referendum were established, pursuant to the language included in the 28 September Act. The Campaign for Maintenance of the Monarchy (CMM) was established as the official campaign to maintain the Monarchy, and on 2 October both the National Pact and Union for National Solidarity reached agreements to be official affiliates of the CMM. The Democratic Effort (DE) was formed to forward the establishment of a Republic, and it became affiliated with the Social Labor Party. The Julian Party officially boycotted the referendum campaign and filed a suit in the Archducal Court to halt the referendum. In October 2037, the Social Labor Party divided over the issue of the referendum and the party's affiliation, and 14 of its Concilium Daoni delegates formed the Organic Caucus. The Organic Caucus formed a legislative alliance with the Union for National Solidarity, forming the semi-official Retainer Party.

On 10 January 2038, a debate was held between Livio Iarnán on behalf of the Campaign for Maintenance of the Monarchy and Ronan Cornelius Marcán on behalf of the Democratic Effort. Respondents and polls believe Iarnán won the debate, but only by a slight margin. The debate had the primary effect of increasing Iarnán's name recognition and personal approval significantly. On 20 January, the Concilium Daoni officially suspended business for a week and a half in order to allow its members to fully campaign throughout the country.


Opinion polling

Initial October 2037 poll

Monarchy Republic Undecided Lead Sample
64.3% 8.2% 27.5 56.1% 8,492

Day of poll

Monarchy Republic Undecided Lead Sample
xxx xxx% xxx xxx xxx

Exit poll

Monarchy Republic Undecided Lead Sample
xxx xxx% xxx xxx xxx

Levantine responses

Non-Levantine responses

The response to the decision to hold a referendum outside of Levantia was generally favorable. Leadership or major parties in several nations - including Nolis and Valcenia - expressed support for the Social Labor Party's efforts to establish a republic.