2018 Urcean institutional referendum

The 2018 Urcean institutional referendum, also known as the Crown referendum within Urcea, was a referendum that took place in Urcea on 2 February 2038. Following six months of campaigning, the referendum returned an overwhelming majority in support of retaining the Monarchy. At 72.5% turnout, it was among the most participated electoral events in the history of the constitutional era.

Urcean institutional referendum

2 February 2018
Should Urcea retain the institution of the monarchy?
Location	Urcea
Outcome	Urcea retains the Monarchy
Results
Response Votes % Retain Monarchy 695,003,029 86.40% Establish Republic 109,398,625 13.60% Valid votes 804,401,654 99.99% Invalid or blank votes 119,685 0.01% Total votes 804,521,339 100.00%
Results by voting area
On the map, the darker shades for a colour indicate a larger majority. The results for Northern Ireland are by parliamentary constituency. The electorate of 46.5m represents 70.8% of the population.

Background

Political realignment

Main article: 2015 Urcean political realignment

Legislation and referendum question

Following the adoption of republicanism as part of the Social Labor Party (SLP) platform in early September 2017, several high profile efforts were made by party members in the Concilium Daoni to bring attention to the issue. Primarily, several SLP delegates attempted to introduce what are known as "hostile amendments", which are unauthorized and often unrelated amendments to legislation brought before the Daoni. Fourteen such attempts were lodged between 14 September and 28 September. On 28 September, following a conference between National Pact and Union for National Solidarity leadership, a hostile amendment calling for a referendum on the monarchy lodged by the SLP was unexpectedly accepted on an unrelated local bill and passed with support from both parties. The move caught Social Labor leadership off guard, and Ronan Cornelius Marcán denounced Chancellor and Temporary President Bridget Farrell as using "underhanded tricks" to "undermine a fair and democratic process". The law was approved by Procurator James Fallshade and the referendum was suddenly set for 2 February. During the vote, members of the Julian Party announced the referendum to be illegal considering that the Concilium Daoni did not have sovereignty apart from that constitutionally granted by the Apostolic King of Urcea, and consequently that the Daoni could not authorize a vote to dissolve its own source of sovereign power.

The question included in the 28 September Act asked "Should Urcea retain the Apostolic Monarchy or abolish it in favor of a Republic?", language drafted by Social Labor Party leadership. The answers, "Retain the Monarchy" or "Establish a Republic" were also included in most of the initial hostile amendments proposed by the Social Labor Party.

Referendum campaign

On 1 October, two opposing official campaigns related to the referendum were established, pursuant to the language included in the 28 September Act. The Campaign for Maintenance of the Monarchy (CMM) was established as the official campaign to maintain the Monarchy, and on 2 October both the National Pact and Union for National Solidarity reached agreements to be official affiliates of the CMM. The Democratic Effort (DE) was formed to forward the establishment of a Republic, and it became affiliated with the Social Labor Party. The Julian Party officially boycotted the referendum campaign and filed a suit in the Archducal Court to halt the referendum. In October 2017, the Social Labor Party divided over the issue of the referendum and the party's affiliation, and 14 of its Concilium Daoni delegates formed the Organic Caucus. The Organic Caucus formed a legislative alliance with the Union for National Solidarity, forming the semi-official Retainer Party.

On 10 January 2018, a debate was held between Livio Iarnán on behalf of the Campaign for Maintenance of the Monarchy and Ronan Cornelius Marcán on behalf of the Democratic Effort. Respondents and polls believe Iarnán won the debate, but only by a slight margin. The debate had the primary effect of increasing Iarnán's name recognition and personal approval significantly. On 20 January, the Concilium Daoni officially suspended business for a week and a half in order to allow its members to fully campaign throughout the country.

Responses

Opinion polling

Initial October 2017 poll

Monarchy	Republic	Undecided	Lead	Sample
64.3%	8.2%	27.5	56.1%	8,492

Day of poll

Monarchy	Republic	Undecided	Lead	Sample
xxx	xxx%	xxx	xxx	xxx

Exit poll

Monarchy	Republic	Undecided	Lead	Sample
xxx	xxx%	xxx	xxx	xxx

Non-Levantine responses

The response to the decision to hold a referendum outside of Levantia was generally favorable. Leadership or major parties in several nations - including the Cape and Ardmore - expressed support for the Social Labor Party's efforts to establish a republic.