2038 Almadarian annexation referendum
On 10 April 2038, a referendum on the potential annexation of Almadaria into Castadilla. The question asked on the referendum was "¿Aprueba usted el gobierno en el exilio de la República Unida de Almadaría se disuelva y transfiera la soberanía sobre su territorio reclamado a la Serenísima Soberanía de Castadilla?" ("Do you approve of the exiled government of the United Republic of Almadaria dissolving itself and transferring sovereignty over its claimed territory to the Most Serene Sovereignty of Castadilla?"), which voters answered with either a "Yes" or a "No". The "Yes" side won with 82.5% (16,139,419) of the vote supporting Almadaria's annexation into Castadilla and 17.5% (3,423,513) of the vote opposing the annexation. The turnout for the referendum was at 94.7% (19,564,870) of the 20,657,795 eligible voters which included Almadarian expats in Castadilla as well as Almadarian citizens in occupied Almadarian territory.
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Do you approve of the exiled government of the United Republic of Almadaria dissolving itself and transferring sovereignty over its claimed territory to the Most Serene Sovereignty of Castadilla? | ||||||||||||||||||||||
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The Democratic Front, which had emerged as an expats' organisation in Faneria, was the main campaign group in opposition to annexation while the Front for Democrcay, which had emerged as an expats' organisation in Castadilla, was the main campaign group in favour of annexation. Endorsements for either side was found amongst expat political organisations, officials in the government-in-exile, businesses, newspapers, and celebrities both domestic and international. Other issues that were at the forefront included how to integrate Almadaria into Castadilla, the differing political cultures between the two nations, the expenses of reconstruction, and how to handle integrating the Valverde into the Peseta. The exit poll for the referendum would reveal that concerns over integration and differing political cultures were the deciding factors for No votes, while concerns over the expenses of reconstruction and a possible crash of the Valverde were the deciding factors for Yes votes.
History
Almadarian independence
Prior to 1846, Almadaria was the western half of the Viceroyalty of Los Rumas, having been integrated into the colonial entity after the Girojon restoration in 1814. As a consequence of integration, most of the Cuasilatinic nobility were forcibly stripped of their titles in preparation for the elevation of new nobility that would be loyal and cooperative to the viceroy. In response the former nobles would begin to embrace their Cuasilatinic ancestry even further which only served to further escalate tensions between them and the Delepasian elite. What finally led to the former nobility rising up in active revolt was in 1846 when a new law was passed which formally erased the Cuasilatinic identity as a separate culture from the Delepasians. This revolt would soon become a movement to establish an independent republic, coopting elements of Delepasianism in order to attract popular support from the lower classes, which were at the time supportive of remaining loyal to the Viceroyalty. The ostensibly liberal character of the new republic was enough to garner the needed popular support to ensure that the nascent republic would win its independence.
Almadarian Civil War
The Almadarian Civil War was the first major event that brought into question Almadaria's independence for the long term as the nation was plagued with numerous instability issues as well as fears of a potential demographic collapse from refugees fleeing to other countries. These fears were further spurred on by the victory of the ultranationalist Revenant Valverdia Vanguard which began to isolate the country and implement policies that were determined to be with genocidal intent and reminiscent of the Loa Laws. With a sizeable amount of Almadarians being of non-Occidental ancestry, most estimates have guessed that up to at least three-quarters of Almadaria's population would either flee or be exterminated, with these guesses being based on the atrocities committed by the Valverdist-aligned "vigilante" militias such as committing numerous cases of arson (with one of the most well-known instances being the burning of the Avevalles Basilica). These fears became especially pertinent amongst Almadaria's neighbours such as Castadilla and Takatta Loa with both nations engaging in remilitarisation policies alongside Lucrecia.
Central Vallosi War
The Central Vallosi War is a conflict from 2037 until 2040 which started when the victorious Valverdist regime in Almadaria did a surprise invasion of Arona as part of its efforts to reclaim all territories the regime considered to be "lost Valverdian territory" as part of a faulty interpretation of a centuries-old map of the Kingdom of Septemontes. The invasion of Arona prompted an immediate response from Urcea which began to plan an intervention with Castadilla to liberate Arona. It was during this war that sentiment for the unification of Almadaria into Castadilla was fast gaining support, but also extreme opposition from more nationalist-minded refugees, particularly those who lived outside of Castadilla. As it was clear that opinions surrounding the matter seemed rather divisive and even polarising, the Almadarian Democratic government-in-exile proposed a referendum on the matter to decide whether or not the lands of Almadaria should unify into Castadilla once the war is over. THe results of the referendum would etermine Castadilla's course of action after the war.
Planning
Dating of the referendum
The planning for the referendum began in late 2037 with one of the first acts being to declare 10 April 2038 to be the day in which the referendum was to be held. 2038 was noted to be the 100th anniversary of Almadaria's entry into the Second Great War on the side of Caphiria. Despite this, the democratic government-in-exile claimed that the timing of the referendum was a coincidence which had no bearing on the historical events which have transpired over Vallos a century ago. Regardless, the fact that the referendum was held in 2038 was seen by some members of the general public as being indicative of the overall spirit of the event as Almadaria lost to the Delepasian Commonwealth in the Second Great War.
Suffrage in the referendum
An intense debate over who should vote on the referendum emerged during the planning, with one group arguing that suffrage should be limited to refugees under the basis that they have definitively proven their disloyalty to the Valverdist regime and thus can be trusted to objectively vote without major bias. Other arguments for refugee-only suffrage included the overall costs of printing out ballots as well as risks of possible interference from "vigilante" militias. On the other side was the argument that suffrage should be expanded to include Almadarian citizens residing in areas under coalition occupation, stating that they had the right to determine their own nation's future and that other nations "would question the legality of the referendum" if suffrage were limited to refugees. They further pointed out that the vast majority of Almadarian citizens living in Castadillaan-occupied lands were either Taineans or Loa, two groups which were persecuted by the Valverdist regime and yet still largely believed in a democratic Almadaria. Ultimately, the government-in-exile chose to expand suffrage to Almadarian citizens living in areas under coalition occupation. The choice to expand suffrage was commended by members of the international community for respecting Almadaria's right to self-determination.
Supervision of the votes
Supervising the referendum votes was to be done by Alstin, a country which has had experience in supervising and monitoring other referendums with the 2034 Winnecomac referendum, which saw a slim majorrty in favour of the city's retention as Tierradorian territory, being one of the most recent referendums it has monitored. Alstin was also picked because of the nation's neutrality over whether or not Almadaria should join Castadilla, and because of its lack of involvement in the Central Vallosi War. The choice of Alstin also ensured that neither campaigns for the referendum would benefit or suffer from a bias towards or against either of them. Alstinian monitors were also responsible for counting the votes and to report any irregularities discovered. This was done to make prevent any potential conflicts of interest. The League of Nations would approve of the choice of having Alstin monitor and supervise the referendum votes with no objections being raised.
Outcome of the referendum
Both the Almadarian democratic government-in-exile and the Castadillaan Magisterial Council have said that they would respect the results of the referendum regardless of whether or not a simple majority of voters wish for Almadaria to join Castadilla. If a majority voted in favour of retaining independence, then Castadilla would aid in the country's reconstruction and transformation into an independent, democratic republic. If a majority voted in favour of joining Castadilla, then Castadilla will work to ensure a smooth integration of the former Almadarian territories into Castadilla whether it happens in a few months or in a few decades. Emperor Maximilian II said in March 2038 that the results of the referendum would be "irreversible and legally-binding" and that he wished for voters to "think very hard and clearly about the future of their nation and of their children" before they make a choice that may forever change the geopolitical dynamics of both Vallos and the world as a whole. Both campaigns have agreed to respect the wishes of the voters, though some members of the pro-independence campaign have said that they would only accept a result which sees Almadaria as an independent country and thus implying that they may not respect the results of the referendum if it were in favour of joining Castadilla.
Other issues
Political culture
Although the two nations speak similar language varieties and similar histories, there have been concerns over differing political cultures between the two. Indeed, Almadaria has had a history of being under independent Occidental realms that were separate from the nations of Levantia or Sarpedon such as the Kingdom of Septemontes, which was the only undecimvirate kingdom to not only survive the fall of the Second Caphirian Imperium unscathed, it also became a major hegemon in western Vallos with numerous vassal states to protect its largely vulnerable borders from rival kingdoms. It is through Septemontes that Almadaria claims its independent character from, with the vast majority of Occidental-descended citizens identifying more with the Latins than with the Pelaxians or any other Urlazian-descended group. This drive towards independence also meant that Almadarian society is considered to be rather low-trust to the point that many Almadarians see a federal structure as being the first step towards national dissolution which in turn has also led to the nation's Tainean and Loa minorities to be discriminated against for not assimilating into "proper" Occidental culture.
Castadilla, on the other hand, has had very little to no connection to the undecimvirate period, its own beginning being determined to be with the arrival of Mauricio Delepas in what is now Los Rumas in 1497 which has tied Castadilla's identity to Urlazian-descended groups rather than to any significant pre-colonial groups or realms. The origins of a separate Castadillaan identity began with the emergence of Delepasianism which called for all colonial subjects living in the Viceroyalty of Los Rumas to unite under a distinct culture considered to be above the traditional colonial and regional divisions. Collectivism, as well as high-trust, had become a major aspect of the nascent Delepasian identity which was further enhanced by the rise of Delepasian exceptionalism which tied national identity to religiosity, particularly within the Catholic Church. The Estado Social also furthered the idea of an inherent civic equality between all Delepasians, with the law applying equally to all citizens regardless of their class or geographical origin, and the Velvet Revolution and the subsequent rise of Velvetine Socialism ensured equality for all regardless of national identity or class origins.
Because of these differences, concerns were raised over whether the two nations would even be compatible with one another under one flag; it was these concerns which saw the eventual proposition and adoption of a framework for the temporary and confederal Central Vallosi Union which was designed to facilitate the integration of Almadaria into Castadilla.
Reconstruction
Because of the Central Vallosi War, another major issue was over the reconstruction of Almadaria once the Valverdist government was finally overthrown in the future. To many, reconstruction was seen as a very long and expensive ordeal which could take decades before Almadaria could return to its prewar conditions. This was seen as the strongest argument in favour of Almadaria's integration into Castadilla; by joining a stronger, more stable, and wealthier economy with connections to the economies of Takatta Loa and Lucrecia within the Vallosi Economic Association, it was argued that reconstruction would be easier due to quicker access to the resources needed for reconstruction without the usual expenses of importing from a foreign nation. Further arguments saw reconstruction as the perfect way to reconcile Almadaria and Castadilla and to instill a sense of trust and solidarity never before seen between the two countries. It was also argued that easier reconstruction as part of the integration process would do far more to dismantle Valverdism than reconstruction as an independent country.
Currency integration
Almadaria's currency from independence was the Valverde, which was once one of the strongest currencies in Vallos, but with the rise and victory of the Valverdists in the Almadarian Civil War the currency quickly collapsed as the international community placed trade embargoes on the country in condemnation of their victory in the civil war as well as their hostile rhetoric towards numerous nations. Due to the currency sharing a name with the regime even though as a coincidence, as well as its collapse, many Almadarians had called for the democratic government-in-exile to abandon the currency in favour of a new currency to distance the government from the Valverdists and to introduce a currency that would hopefully be more stable. A growing faction of Almadarians would propose an alternative, that being to designate the Peseta, Castadilla's currency, as Almadaria's currency in hopes of encouraging sentiment towards integration into Castadilla. This faction would soon be taken up by those who already supported integration, citing it as easier to implement than introducing a completely new currency as well as making reconstruction easier by removing potential currency conversion barriers.
Integration into Castadilla
A major issue which was raised by those who supported Almadaria's independence was over how Almadaria, a unitary presidential republic long under a right-wing government, would be integrated into Castadilla, a federal parliamentary semi-constitutional semi-elective monarchy long under a left-wing government. As both governments have greatly diverged in terms of political evolution, concerns rose that integrating a unitary state with a long, established history of republicanism into a federation with a long, established history of monarchism would be a longer and more difficult process. Other concerns included hypotheses over how the Occidental-descended people of Almadaria, the most ardent supporters of Valverdism, would react to integration, especially as Valverdists who have surrendered or were captured have tried multiple times to end their lives due to the extreme shame in having lost to a nation that they deemed to be "inferior" and too multiculturalist. This latter concern was addressed through the use of deradicalisation measures and showing Almadarians the atrocities which were caused in the name of Valverdism whether through photos or through forced tours of the areas in which said atrocities were committed. The idea was to effectively shame the Almadarian people for their complicit behaviour towards these atrocities and to discourage ideologies similar to Valverdism from rising up ever again.
Campaigning
There were two main groups which campaigned in the time leading up to the referendum. The Democratic Front, an expats' organisation established in Faneria, emerged as the main campaign group for independence with Faneria being its primary supporter due to naval bases being leased to Faneria's navy by the Almadarian government and concerns that Castadilla might not honour those leases. The Front for Democrcay, an expats' organisation established in Castadilla, emerged as the main campaign group for annexation with Castadilla being its primary supporter due to increasing sentiment that an independent Almadaria could not be trusted to maintain the peace in Vallos and would inevitably attempt another conflict unless the values which surround the Almadarian identity were fundamentally changed under the direct supervision of Castadilla. The former group often consisted of members who have hinted towards not recognising the results of the referendum should the results be in favour of annexation. These members were often kept quiet by their group's leadership due to the unfortunate implications.
Independent groups were permitted to campaign in the time leading up to the referendum for which side they support. This saw the emergence of groups such as the Fronte Unido Conxunto Almadaríano-Castadillano (FUCAC), the Frente Nacional Almadaríano (FNA), and the Unión Cooperativa para la Amizade Transnacional (UCAT). Many of these groups were formed amongst Almadarian expats in Castadilla, and were largely funded through donations; only the two main campaign groups were permitted to receive funding from the democratic government-in-exile mostly due to limited funds on account of much of Almadaria's reserves being under Valverdist control.
Voting
Results
Reactions
See also