Talk:Second Great War

See Talk:Great War/Old and Talk:Second Great War/Old for various pre-existing materials. The adopted 2021-22 Plan for the war is in here now. Consult lore pronouncements on Discord for specific war information and beats that aren't elucidated here.

Second Great War

Broad outline

The overall conflict would primarily be Urcea, Burgundie, Fiannria, Cartadania, and Pelaxia (with the Cape as a cobelligerent) against Caphiria, Faneria, and Crona with Corumm, the Audonian revolutionaries, the Derian revolutionaries being cobelligerents.

This war takes on the broad global characteristics of the current version of the Great War, with Veltorina simply eliminated from the equation. Caphiria's goals here are similar, expanding and maintaining its hegemony by means of conquest of Dorhaven (now Talionia) which it more or less views as the final impediment to its continental dominion. Abroad, the Audonians and Corummese are still interested in defeating Burgundie's influence. The Fin-Fan war will proceed as planned. Accordingly, the first two years present a "siege" situation for Burgundie and Urcea, with Kuhlfros playing his traditional role of supporting the Derians until he needs Urcea. This is all driven by Caphiria, who supports the Derians in order to divert Urcea's attentions to conquer Talionia. This can provide its own spark, or there's a "Capetian angle". A Caphirian-aligned ally in Crona invades the Cape, scaring Cartadania and Pelaxia into creating a formal alliance with Urcea; Caphiria then reacts to this latest example of "Creep" by initiating the Derian uprising with Fanerian assistance. Caphiria need not declare war on Urcea until maybe the second or third year of the war, preparing to build up as Urcea drains more resources and manpower in Dericania.

The rest of the war proceeds basically as planned in the current version of the conflict. Once declared, Caphiria will overrun Dorhaven and begin western offensives, sort of trying to do a "reverse Schlieffen" by knocking Dorhaven out first. Dorhaven will be largely overrun but maybe the peninsula or just the island will hold. Urcea will end up having to do a MacArthur-in-Korea type reclamation, marching up the peninsula gradually. Urcea also opens the southern front where Valcenia used to be and pushes with Pelaxia and Cartadania in the west. Caphiria is now losing by the 7th or 8th year of the war and is on its back foot, but still fighting. A breakthrough on all fronts seems imminent and Caphirian forces collapse in Dorhaven from defending on three fronts. However, as Urcean troops now seem poised to not only liberate the Kingdom but also begin their invasion of Caphiria proper from the east (which threatens Venceia due to its positioning in a way that the western invasions just can't), Caphiria unleashes its secret weapon in year nine. An advanced force of Urcean R&IA troops - not a large contingent by any means, for diplomatic/political reasons I (Urcea) will get into - are annihilated by the first nuclear detonation ever recorded. This should probably be in a small Dorhavener city in order to build enmity between Talionians and Caphirians. The power of this weapon gives Urcea pause and they stop advancing. The Caphirians by this point could not hit Crona, Levantia, or likely even Pelaxia or Cartadania, but they can still use strategic weapons in Dorhaven. While they could have hit a larger formation or bigger city, the bombing was not tactical but strategic - Venceia wanted to make a point and draw people to the negotiating table, not enrage them or strengthen their resolve.

The partition of occupied Caphirian lands proceeds as in the current version of the war, but Caphirian independence is maintained. The League of Nations is created in order to prevent wars like this from happening again, but the whole thing has the air of unfinished business to it, leading to the Cold War. It has been suggested that the LoN form out of an existing wartime organization of the allies intended for this purpose but with Caphiria just grafted onto it as an equal partner. That's a possibility.

Timing considerations

In Levantia, there are a handful of hard dates now that may need to be played into or revised as needed. The abdication of the Burg Emperor in 1920 leads to Urcea being elected to stabilize the situation in the HLE. I don't see any reason why the disorder and chaos in the run up to the war couldn't be elongated, so that 1920 date could remain. In the present canon, the 1927-35 phase of the war leads to the dissolution of the HLE in 1935. I don't know of any real lore that relies on that other than the timing of the 2nd and 3rd Fratricide, but we can just play around with that timeline. The Establishment of the LU/Deric States in 1953 is an important date and coincides with the League's establishment. Generally, the DS could be established a few years earlier without much incident (and should probably predate the LU. The LU is a little more important but maybe a predecessor institution established as a wartime necessity lasts with additional members joining until 1953 when it is fused with the DS and Kuhlfros. Alternatively we could just make the LU be established earlier.

The League of Nations establishment in 1953 is not too important to the lore but some general flavor text dates (including in off-wiki documents) will need to be revised.

The broad issue is with technological advancement. The current GW essentially features industrial warfare ala WW1 with some minor alterations during its early phase, with historical/technological developments in this respect being slightly retarded compared to our timeline but by the time of the war's end the technology is ahead of time. I (Urc) have always liked this complexion. We need not have mere industrial warfare in this one since we are adding a GW, but some "catching up and surpassing" type 2nd Great War is a fundamentally good idea in my view.

There are also some nation-specific considerations. Lots of countries seem to have major changes during wartime, especially Carna and the Cape. I think the Cape's trevails can be well tied into the war, but keeping an "event" happening in the 40s seems like it is deferential to these players.

Lastly, people have expressed interest in a shorter war. I (Urc) agree; 27 years is too long even if the original concept was decent. I like the neat concept of a 9 year war, with each bit comprising 3 year phases. The first 3 years are the Levantine "siege" period and the initial Crona war, with the Audonian War and Second Fratricide happening similtaneously. The 2nd phase is the "Sarpedon War Proper", wherein Caphiria invades Dorhaven and the two western allies jump in, with the reclamation beginning probably in the latter half of this while Urcea focuses on side theaters. I think Fin-Fan would also begin during Phase 2, with Kuhlfros being pro-Derian in Phase 1. The third phase would be the "end game" period, wherein Caphiria is steadily losing basically everywhere. Maybe Faneria capitulates or peaces out or whatever during this third phae.

Player motivations

Caphiria

ICly and OOCly, Heky has a fixation on Talionia. Manipulating the internal affairs of the Derians in order to distract the Urceans to the point where taking Dorhaven is achievable is realistic ICly and OOCly.

Caergwynn

Caergwynn has been eying the lands the Fanerians stole in (early 19th century war that undermined the old Republic) and is also worried by Caphirian aggression. The country begins serious war preparations after the invasion of Taliona, and joins the war outright in June of that year, negotiating entry to the alliance from May as Fiannria is desperate for reinforcements-desperate enough to not object to Dol Awraidd taking those lands in compensation for its efforts.

Vithinja

Need to suffer a major (probably naval) defeat to cause internal crisis causing republic to be overthrown. Current idea is for Caergwynn and Vithinja to have mutual defense pact which is violated (probably either by Faneria or Fiannria that drags Vithinja into the war. Vithinja will likely exit the war early just to reenter late taking little part.

(Idea, altering or possibly replacing the above): Instead of the original plan for a Caeric-Vithinjan defense pact that draws Vithinja into the war when Caergwynn is attacked, perhaps instead it could be a situation where Vithinja isn't technically obligated to enter (as Caergwynn hasn't been attacked). However, Vithinja follows its Caeric ally in anyway after a few days of indecision, as Caergwynn is still a valued ally, neutrality would not be enough to satisfy the NatCons if they win, and a Faneria that rules all the southern straits would be "a dagger pointed eternally northwards", in the words of the Vithinjan Foreign Minister. Vithinja doesn't do all that much-maybe this caution is in the wake of the naval disaster mooted above-but it denies Kilikas-access to Caergwynn's enemies and helps them and the rest of the alliance a bit out navally otherwise.

Participants by theater

Levantia

See Broad outline for now

Sarpedon

See Broad outline for now

Audonia

• • Burgundie (and Urcea) supporting Bulkh against Puhktunkhwa
  • Burgundie (and Urcea) vs anti-occidentalists on Salarive
  • Burgundie (and Urcea) supporting Umardwal against Caphirian-backed Zaclaria (potentially the catalyst for them becoming a crown protectorate?)

Alshar

• Alshari Western Theater: Burgundie (and Urcea) supporting Jalqolak vs Corummese invasion (includes the Corummese occupation of Ayermer for a time)
• Alshari Eastern Theater: Burgundie (and Urcea) supporting Pukhgundi vs anti-occidentalists

Crona

• Veroui Revolt- Ethnically Burgoignac-Veroui people revolt (supported by Alstin and Burgundie) against Ehemoan rule to establish Veraise which becomes an autonamous territory of Alstin at the end of the war.

Helpful linkage

Begins with Ten Year Plan (Caphiria) ends with Atomic bombing of Cavosia

Summary of Events thru ca 1940

Note: much of the geography here will have to be rebuilt as part of broader Sarp lore changes.

1. Background: In previous war Caphiria annexed Veltorina and beat up the WAllies. It was promised Talionia, which was not handed over due to regime change. Caphiria is dominant on Sarpedon and most powers are chafing. K of Urcea elected Emperor in 1920 against backdrop of failing situation in the Holy Levantine Empire, and Caphiria hopes to use it as a means to conquer Talionia. Caphiria secretly funds 1925 socialist uprisings in Deric States as proof of concept (not employing major arms supplies really), and these uprisings tie down Urcea and its allies. In 1928 Caphirian policymakers implement the Ten Year Plan in 1928, devising incorporation of Talionia by 1938 by means of a general Derian uprising by 1935 accompanied by an invasion of Talionia which Urcea would have to accept as a fait accompli. As part of a general strategy, they begin to mobilize and rearm.
2. The rearmament is detected by Pelaxia + Cartadania, who (after GW1 beating) form a mutual defense alliance with themselves and with Burgundie. This expansion, by 1929, necessitates a Caphirian expansion of the Ten Year Plan with anti-Burgundie and potential anti-Fiannrian engagement strategies in order to ensure there were no missed contingencies in Levantia. Caphiria begins to secretly coordinate with the leadership of Corumm, who has been plotting a joint move against Burgundie since around 1922. With Caphirian arms and money guaranteed, they begin to prepare themselves and lay the groundwork with native Burg dependent princes, etc., as well as making connections with already extant rebel bands and nationalist leaders in Burg colonies and dependencies.
3. With unexpected covert cooperation from Fiannria, the general Derian uprising occurs in March 1934, kicking off a general war there and the initial phase of the Second Great War, though it has not escalated there yet. Urcea and Burgundie form their initial alliance against Derian nationalists, and most of the focus throughout much of 1934 is keeping Burgundie in the war as its continental forces are notoriously small or absent. Burgundie's struggles and necessity of the R&IA to prevent Derian incursions gives the eastern countries their opening, precipitating a general uprising in Audonia/Alshar in September 1934, with Corumm and Kloistan declaring war at the same time as many of the formerly dependent princes and national groups. Burgundie forces do better here than in Levantia due to their mostly-overseas disposition. Fiannria still funnels weapons to the Derians, which the Caphirians are mostly fine with but they did make promises to Faneria as part of their ten year plan. Accordingly, Faneria cites instability within the HLE and irredentist claims and launches a surprise invasion of Fiannria in October 1934, catching the Fiannrians utterly off-guard. The Derians lose a key supporter and the Fiannrians are (reluctantly) welcomed into the Urc-Burg alliance. Weapons for the Derians from Caphiria are still regularly smuggled across the Vandarch by Fanerians. At this point, the Levantine Allies are aware of massive shipments of money and arms flowing into the Alshar/donia theater from Caphiria through Zaclaria, but due to Caphiria's neutrality they are unable to do much about it beyond stops for minor ocean territory violations (where they occur). Corummese and Kloi offensives begin against Burg allies and Burg positions in earnest during December 1934, which is fine campaign season for the equatorial parts of Alshar and Audonia. The war ends this year in Dericania with a "war of artillery" grinding things to a halt and poor early allied armored doctrine failing.
4. By January 1935, things have basically gone according to plan for Caphiria. With Urcea's R&IA fully committed in Dericania and its allies entirely bogged down with existential threats elsewhere, Caphiria has two assumptions. First, it assumes that the alliance between Burgundie and the WestSarp Allies will not be honored as the latter two would not put themselves in danger over it (essentially a "scrap of paper" situation) and secondly that Urcea will not be able or willing to seriously contest the invasion of Talionia, and by the time the Kingdom is overrun (they anticipate July 1935) Urcea will have to accept it as a fait accompli to preserve the war in the HLE and Burg's continental war. Accordingly, Caphiria declares war on Talionia (but not Urcea, a somewhat clever diplomatic ruse to make the Levantines look like aggressors) on January 17, 1935 and begins the invasion the same day. Urcea and Burgundie declare war on Caphiria on January 18th, with Caphiria responding on January 20th. Critically, following tense debate in both parliaments, Pelaxia and Cartadania honor their obligations and declare war on Caphiria five days later on January 25th. Catching Venceia by surprise, many forces in Urlazio have to be diverted away from the Talionia invasion and are sent to the western border. Caphiria's ally/client, Vachena, honors its treaty obligations and declares war on all allied countries on January 27th. By February 7th the Caphirian forces have lost the initiative in Talionia and are forced to assume a defensive position, having taken half of the country but failing to deliver a knockout blow to the small Talionian military and the small supplemented R&IA forces there.
5. Urcea induces Fiannria to use its colonial forces in defense of Burg possessions, a somewhat awkward situation, but they do so nonetheless as Urcean military commitments to the East are recalled and sent West. A good portion of the Royal Navy remains in the war in the east. On the sea lanes, Caphirian supplies and cash begin to dry up as the country's status of a belligerent puts its transports and convoys in danger, and by the end of February 1935 the larger Urcean Royal Navy/Burgundie Navy have established sea lane supremacy between Sarpedon and Dericania/AlsDonia. The Corummese and Kloi navies make small sorties in an attempt to establish control over the sea in their respective areas. Most Levantine Eastern squadron ships are a generation or two older, but there's a lot of them. Accordingly, the CorKloi navies have to be picky about using their smaller number of more modern ships, picking off isolated targets in "smart target choice" sorties. Ultimately, there will be no decisive eastern naval battle as the Levantines establish general control of the sea but the CorKloi naval capacity is never exactly destroyed or diminished. Ground fighting in this theater is largely small scale skirmishes fought along a front (if it could be called) of loose, mobile skirmisher units across thousands of miles, or are marine actions against centers of power (i.e. princes besieged in capital cities, etc.). Interesting developments occur here in the air war with Fiannrian Oriental Squadrons - very small but elite corps of pilots - patent some now standard techniques and really excel. Corummese and Kloi air forces really see their modern birth during this early period of the conflict.
6. Urcea commits to total war and begins conscription as well as temporary nationalization of industry to begin producing arms and materiel for a two front war. Forces intended for the Burgundie East are instead deployed to Urlazio by March 1st in order to form an ad hoc western theater army
7. In Dericania, the early 1935 campaign season sees some successes of modernish armored doctrine and mass use by the Urceans, creating some critical breakthroughs in some sectors. The various combatant groups and rebellious states declare the Derian Republic Diplomats in Dericania are also trying a different tack, offering implicit Urcean recognition of local Republican revolutionary regimes (and sheltering their dispossessed nobles in exchange for dropping claim) in exchange for ending their hostilities. There is some interest but all negotiations end with these local powers with the preservation of the HLE - not only its irrational administration but its inherent sovereignty model - as a non-starter. Despite allied victories along the western-southern front in Dericania, Corcra falls to the Derian Republic on March 26th, 1935.
8. No major action between Caphiria and the Western Allies along the main front, but a Cartadanian invasion of Vachena begins in earnest on March 24th, 1935. Caphirian forces launch another major attack in Talionia on March 18th, 1935 and are largely successful, now occupying 2/3rds of the country before being driven back. They are also launching successful offenses into Cartadanian portions of Urlazio beginning on March 29th to relieve the pressure on Vachena but these are more focused on disrupting Cartadanian offensive capability on the island and drawing forces away from Vachena.
9. Levantine allies successfully induce Metzetta, to that point neutral, to join the war on the side of the allies on March 30th, 1935 by promising islands currently held by Corummese tributary Tanhai.
10. With battle lines being drawn in Western Sarpedon, @Aciria is induced by the allies to join the war on April 6th, 1935. Aciria is promised the @Burgundie controlled island of Port Arleau and the Caphirian held island of Lides, with Port Arleau being ceded by 1940 and Lides going to Aciria in hypothetical post-war peace deal.
11. Fiannria informs Urcea and Burgundie on March 13th 1935 that its intended deployment of resources to the east in defense of Burgundie possessions may no longer be feasible given Fanerian progress and essentially issues an ultimatum to the southern Levantine allies to give it some relief. Faced with these tough choices, Urcea ultimately diverts some forces from Dericania as well as the intended reinforcements from Talionia for a nothern campaign designed to open overland supply routes and more readily contest the Vandarch, as well as opening the Carolina-Grand Canal for wartime business. The Northern Campaign is launched on April 14th by Urcea from the south and a limited Fiannrian force from the north. Urcea first violates Anglei's neutrality, but occupies its capitol rapidly and says it intends to respect the country's non-involvement so long as transport and trade through it is accepted. The two allies then launch a joint offensive into what is today Hollona and Diorisia on April 17th. The area, occupied by the Derian Republic's Autonomous Vandarch Area (essentially a local warlord controlled territory), is quickly dispatched by pressure from both fronts. Based on their earlier backchannel negotiation attempts, Urcea has a somewhat novel idea: rather than restoring the Elector of Diorisia or the multitude of small princes and prince-bishoprics, Urcea reaches an agrerment with the Church and Elector for later compensation and consolidates the area into the Provisional Republic of Hollona and Diorisia. The Republic, called collaborators by some, empowers some local revolutionaries sympathetic to the allied cause, and propaganda campaigns begin regarding the "inherent differences" of the Hol/Dio people who have always fit awkwardly into Derian national identity. The Republic's creation comes with an intentionally ambiguous relationship to the HLE, non-participating in its institutions but final status to be determined after the war.
12. The lack of reinforcements leads to Talionian defense forces adopting a national redoubt strategy, retreating to the southeastern tip of the country for the most part by April 10th and "turtling", essentially, behind pre-constructed defensive perimeters. WIth Urcean naval ability, it is anticipated that these forces will be able to be resupplied for some time. Some delaying efforts are made to stop the Caphirian advance, and the Caphirians had not been ready for another offensive until around May 1st, and accordingly their occupation of the lightly contested areas does not fully occur until April 23rd. Caphiria maintains a "siege" force but redeploys the bulk of its Talionian-facing forces to western Urlazio and the western front of Sarpedon in order to coincide with a general offensive on the western front to begin in June. While Caphiria had intended to take the entire Kingdom and use it as a springboard to launch raids into Crotona and potentially Urcea proper in order to induce them to leave the war, Aciria joining the war has heightened the priority of the western theater for the Caphirians and accordingly the besieged position in Talionia will suffice.
13. Caphirian Legions begin their general western offensive on May 15th following weeks of light skirmishing. At this time, Caphirian borders reach to the sea and Pelaxia and Cartadania are both isolated from each other. Naval linking efforts are partly successful as Burgundie navy is involved in the Kindreds, but the Caphirian navy is still at full strength and the area is hotly contested. Caphiria basically intends to push on Alahuela rapidly to knock them out of the war and create a puppet government allowing them to isolate Aciria and Pelaxia in the Kindreds. By this point, however, Vachena is pretty much overrun and Cart has forces (and ports) to spare. Caphirian forces feint into Pelaxia but launch essentially a combined arms blitzkrieg into Cartadania with the beginning of the offensive, opening up a major hole in the Cartadanian lines that isn’t closed until they’ve advanced 75 miles in the first four days. Despite being overcommitted basically everywhere else, Cartadania requests Burgoinac marines from nearby colonies as reinforcements and they are granted. Most Allies (correctly) suspect Vallos will not be a major theater of combat
14. General campaigning in Sarpedon occurs from May to October 1935, primarily involving Caphirian breakthrough efforts in southeastern Cartadania. Caphiria loses the initiative by June and a new stalemate occurs, though the intended effect of giving Vachena some room to breathe is acheieved. In Levantia, Burgundie's borders are now largely secured and allied forces, especially the R&IA with limited Fiannrian support, shift priority to continually widening the northern corridor, believe that to be the best path to success. Allied forces spent the summer subduing modern Kronenia, which is accomplished by the end of this period and allied forces are threatening Corcra. In the east, Corummese forces begin the siege of Ayermer and spent the summer fighting in Rusana, having successfully ejected Burgundie coastal forts and trade factories. Pukhgundi area's "confederation of princes", the Corummese-funded organization leading the war effort, splinters on 18 October with a contingent of local princes returning to their alliance with Burgundie, leading to a massive and bloody civil war which lays the groundwork for the later ethnic divisions which would establish Peshabiwar as independent.
15. November 2, 1935. At the battle of the Adonaire Strait - the Urcean term for the opening between Talionia and former Veltorina which provides access to the Urlazian Sea - most of Caphiria's best and biggest capital ships are sunk or heavily damaged in the major naval turning point of the war. Though Urcea's capital ships were outnumbered, the fleet sent to stop the Caphirians included a small number of aircraft carriers diverted from elsehwere. The carriers had mostly scout planes and a few planes with ground attack capabilities. As the Urceans began to lose the battle, quick thinking pilots used the attack planes to bomb the Caphirian ships, which only had limited anti-air complements. This only really worked as it was a crystal clear day wherein otherwise pilots untrained in naval navigation would have had significant difficulty in their task. As it was, it was clear that naval air power was the future at the end of the day, with the Caphirian ships either sent scurrying back to port where they would remain for most of the rest of the war or sitting at the bottom of the Urlazian Sea. The battle, simply known in Caphiria as the "Naval Disaster", was kept from the public for decades; the ships that were destroyed were gradually reported as losses throughout the next few months, depicting them as replacable attrition rather than a devestating loss. (To be totally revised)
16. November 10, 1935. In response to its loss at the Adonaire Strait, Caphirian high command authorizes the use of unrestricted submarine warfare. Current naval construction is halted, and in the years to come submarines will be the primary construction of the Caphirian navy.
17. November 14, 1935. Caphirian submarine based out of new pens in the Cape sinks an Arcerion cargo ship bound for Urcea, which explodes upon being hit. Arco government confirms it was delivering weapons to Levantia; Caphirians insist this was an unfortunate military necessity while Arcos argue that commerce is perfectly legal. After two weeks of negotiations between the two sides, Arcerion unilaterally cuts off negotiations and begins Operation Lightfoot, the invasion of the Cape. Capetian and Caphirian governments maintain that Arco government was negotiating in bad faith and was buying time to begin the invasion. Arco government claims that Caphiria was stringing it along until they could provide reinforcements to the Cape.
18. 1935 ends with two major military operations. After fighting to a successfulish impasse against Cartadania and Pelaxia, Caphiria has also completed an impressive defensive line facing Aciria, which Caphirian command believes may exit the war if the other Western allies are defeated, viewing them as a potential client in the decades to come. In Urlazio, December sees a three week attempt by the Legions to break into the Talionia redoubt, which fails and is called off by December 18 following 25,000 casualties. In the east, @Metzetta launches its invasion of the largest island in the southern sea, "XXX", which is inhabited by ethnic Metzettans but occupied by Tanhai, a Corummese tributary state. The invasion establishes a beachhead but grinds to a stalemate as sea control in the area remains heavily contested.
19. On January 4th, 1936, the various anti-Levantine co belligerents sign an official alliance and treaty of cooperation known as the National-Continental Co-Belligerency League. This alliance would be disbanded at the end of the war and includes a wide variety of interests and ideologies ranging from national independence in Levantia and Audonia to Marxist revolution in Crona to continental domination in Sarpedon. The alliance ends up largely being a failure globally but a relative success in some localized areas, in particular leading to better coordination between Faneria/DericRepublic in Levantia. In Alshar it is extremely successful in bringing about greater coordination, though the Alshar-Audonia branch of the alliance in time comes to be little more than a Corummese sphere organization
20. The new communist government of the Cape makes successful contact with Caphiria in May 1935 and the two sides begin negotiations. An alliance of convenience, not unlike Caphiria's commitments in Alshar and Audonia, is on the table, as Caphiria is very interested in the strategic utility and pressure that the Cape and Vachena could exert on Vallos. Submarine bases in the Cape would also allow Caphiria, at least in theory, to heavily disrupt allied reinforcement efforts to their western colonies and would allow significant control over the western Odoneru. The Cape is primarily interested in weapons. Urcean intelligence learns of these developments by the end of May and forwards them on to Kurst. The Arco government issues a formal letter of protest but bides its time.
21. Skipping specific campaign lore from here on out. High level events only. After slowly turning the tide and grinding down Derian nationalists, the Dericania front increasingly becomes a side concern for Urcea and Burgundie. Allies begin back channel negotiations with Derian nationalist groups. Emperor Brian renounces right to "govern in" Dericania, Fiannria, Burgundie, and Anglei while not abdicating for abjuring his throne as Holy Levantine Emperor as part of negotiated settlement in May 1937. Despite complaints of conservatives and others, individual peace agreements can now be signed with the few remaining free-standing Derian nationalist statelets, the allies, and allied-aligned powers. Instead, the Treaty of Corcra is signed 4 September 1937 formally acknowledging the earlier renunciation of HLE authority over those areas, ability of de Welutas to keep the title/artifacts, recognition of the Derian free states, various financial agreements to cover the disposessed, and all the other stuff you would imagine to "settle" the area. Third Fratricide will soon begin as anti-treaty forces and socialist revolutionaries will launch major uprisings against shaky "treaty states" of Dericania. Urcea and Fiannria can fully commit forces elsewhere. Fiannria is doing poorly by now (?) and needed the help, whereas the war in Sarpedon had been fought to a draw by 4 September. War in Alshar and Audonia was ongoing with heavy fighting between Tanhai and Metzetta which would continue throughout the war. Deric theater ends.
22. Beginning of 1938: Urlazio is retaken in force by Acirio-Urcean joint operation, stunning Caphirian military leadership. Total sea control aided in the task. Caphirians maintain a small number of forts facing Venceia across the Urlazian Sea. Loss there complicates supply picture for them and makes Urcea-to-Aciria supply fairly easy. Caphiria begins being subject to strategic air bombing. While still doing well in mainland Sarpedon, Caphirian leaders consider these factors - as well as the failure of the timeline of the ten year plan and their assumptions - in focusing a lot of development on extremely experimental weapons, increasingly believing that they will win the war as R&IA Deployments in Sarpedon theater grow significantly every month. Nuclear research breakthroughs happen in 1938 but are still a long, long way from a viable weapon.
23. More fighting in Sarpedon in 1938. Capetian forces are making gains by this point (?). Faneria reaches its greatest point of advance (?) before newly available R&IA troops and Urcean military as well as improved Fiannrian army jointly push back Fanerians and surround their breakthrough. General fighting everywhere.
24. 1939. Major contacts made in Volonia by Acirian forces (GC Lorenzo). Allied production and military availability means modern, larger units are finally arriving in Alshar, with older dreadnaughts and shit finally taken out of service and modern naval assets being used. The war begins to turn steadily in the allies favor in Alshar. Meanwhile, after years of offensives and counter offensives, the Caphirian Legion is finally driven out of the pre-war territorial borders of Aciria. The worst years of fighting in terms of bloodshed are about to begin as both sides will spend significant amount of time trying to achieve supremacy in the western mountain ranges of Sarpedon. While the allies are beginning to have the edge in the air war, it's not guaranteed they'll hold it every time. More stuff happens in Northern Levantia, which becomes the short-term priority of allied forces through 1939 and 1940.

further backups

This may be re-added, but I wanted a super clean slate in order to begin working on this today

Decline of the Holy Levantine Empire

First Fratricide and Fourth Kin War

In the Wake of the Third Caroline War, the Peoples Spring of 1848 saw the formation of formidable groups in fifteen Imperial states which formed their own protests, revolts, and organized labor actions. These were brutally suppressed by then-Emperor Louis XI, leading to the long-winded violence of the First Fratricide. Many Derians had long feared that Urcea would attempt to consume the Kingdom of Dericania and its constituent states, and Derians now felt that the only thing keeping the Urceans away - the Imperial Court - would no longer protect them. Some speculated that Corcra would attempt to keep the “northern liberals” out of “southern politics” - fears which reached new heights in 1887, when The Kingdom of Fhainnlannachaeran openly invaded Imperial territory through Fiannria. The Imperial response to this flagrant assault on its being was the Emperor enforcing a non-engagement order, barring any of the other Holy Levantine states from coming to Fiannria’s defense. This breach of the long-standing mutual defense customs the Empire had once held flamed fears of both internal warfare and foreign conquest, shattering much of the remaining goodwill held towards the HLE in Deria. The surprise victory of Fiannria in the war proved bittersweet, as it left many feeling they were better left to their own devices than relying on the Imperial court.

Red Interregnum

Main article: Red Interregnum

In Urcea, developments in the government lead to the regency of and consolidation of power by Gréagóir FitzRex, who sought to elevate the military above the traditional nobility and spearhead a number of reforms culminating in an attempt at outright seccession from the Holy Levantine Empire. The resulting civil war involved members of the Empire, and eventually the Empire as a whole, intervening in the war on behalf of House de Weluta against the Crown Regent. It also resulted in the Depression of 1900, which destabilized the Empire and lead to mass uprisings in the Dericania, as well as reigniting the longstanding feud between Urcea and Caphiria, politically charging the role of the Catholic Church in Levantia. FitzRex was replaced with the short-lived Urcean Republic, which created a left-wing, idealistic radical socialist state from which Derian revolutionaries were later inspired; the Republic was shortly overturned and the the primacy of the King of Urcea reinstated in 1902. With the de Welutas restored to the Julian Throne, the Recess of the Julii came to an end, temporarily strengthening the Empire despite the severe economic depression and uprisings. During the conflict, there were isolated shooting incidents between the Levantines and Caphirian expeditionaries who supported the Crown Regency. These skirmishes would prove to be a prelude to the coming conflict.

The Powder Keg

In 1909, the Grand Duchy of Anivania was gripped by violence as republican forces took control of the ducal palace and declared a republic. By 1911, the conclusion of the civil war and declaration of the Serene Republic of Anivania were completed. The new state's use of “Serene” to emphasize its sovereignty was not recognized by most other Imperial states, but its success in achieving and maintaining autonomy sparked other movements across the Empire. In 1920, as it became clear violence and instability was gripping the Empire, the Collegial Electorate did what would have been unthinkable a century before and elected King James VI of Urcea as Holy Levantine Emperor in a last-ditch effort to stabilize the Empire's internal affairs. It was thought that Urcea's muscle behind the Empire may have given it the resources needed to hold itself together; simultaneously, it eroded the last shreds of serious support for the Empire in Dericania. The next year, in 1921, the Electorate of Aescarata faced a socialist revolt. Urcea intervened, with the intervention evolving into outright occupation. By 1925, the region was considered a "powder keg", waiting for the right spark to explode. This was aided along by agents from Caphiria, who since the Red Interregnum had worked to foment unrest, eliminate charismatic officials and strongmen supporters of the Empire, and undermine Levantine wartime readiness. Caphiria capitalized on the fever-pitch of Derian nationalism, intending to have a Latin-dominated state in the orbit of Venceia burst from the corpse of the Holy Levantine Empire. This interest was not primarily in Dericania itself per se, but rather eastward, in Veltorina, whose independence was guaranteed by Urcea and other Imperial states.

Republican Revolutions

Fhainnin Revolution and Militarization

Main article: Fhainnin Civil War

The Kingdom of Fhainnlannachaeran had suffered a number of internal issues since its first constitution in 1830, and was forced to put down local nationalist uprisings in Culriocha, Namhe, and Leucwar during the 1848 Peoples' Spring. In spite of this, it had won in the defensively-fought Third Kin War against Fiannria, which directly caused the White Revolution, and maintained its new territories on the Nordskan coast and across the Ereglasian Isthmus and stood at the height of its power. Republican and socialist groups, while strong politically, remained marginalized, and the Kingdom appeared to be ascendant enough to compete with the Burgundines for the title of second among the states of Levantia after Urcea. This radically changed with the Fourth Kin War, which ended almost solely due to the personal ineptitude of King Rethys V, ceding massive territories along the Vandarch coast to Fiannria to free himself from imprisonment. Afterwards, the history of Faneria became bloodied with riots, territorial wars with Vithinja, returning exiles from the Cape, Fiannria, and Carna, and eventually the violent overthrow of the monarchy in the Fhainnin Revolution of 1906.

Afterwards, Faneria's republic initially focused on repairing its economy and military, but after the death of the Republic's semi-dictatorial figurehead, Callac Cananach, in 1922, parliamentary politics were undermined by the socially dominant revolutionary military. Cion Faelhaen, a military officer pardoned by the Republicans and reinstated as a general, eventually became Director of the Republic after widespread campaign of political terror, including the assassination of one heads of government in 1932 and the imprisonment of another 1934, after which he selected a Taesteach loyal to the militarist faction of the Republican Party. Throughout the lat3 1920s and early 1930s, the civilian government was chilled into silence through threats and occasional violence, and a growing alliance between the perpetual revolutionary doctrine of Faelhaen's faction and the already powerful pan-Gaelic movement formulated a doctrine of Gaelic unification under the perception that Fiannria and the other Gaelic nations were illegitimate states whose people would welcome unity in a single nation.

In reality, such propaganda was simply an excuse to wage a war against Fiannria intended to prevent its surpassing Faneria, and to capitalize on perceived Imperial weakness to reclaim lost territories, as well as to distract from growing tensions with Caergwynn over the gains made in the Boreal War, which had been retained even through the Revolution.

1GW

A massive opportunity presented itself in the 1890s with the rise of Gréagóir FitzRex in Urcea and beginning of the Red Interregnum. Caphiria offered its full support to FitzRex, providing materiel and volunteers to fight against the now-hated House de Weluta. The prospect of a FitzRex victory was promising not only due to the destabilizing nature of regime change but because his desire to destroy socialism and secede from the Holy Levantine Empire lined up with Caphiria's own goals, and FitzRex indicated that if he was victorious, he may be willing to surrender Talionia and would not interfere in Veltorina. The Imperial Naval Fleet began to actively interdict the Navy of Burgundie, which impeded the Legitimist cause significantly.

With the Urceans and Burgoignesc absorbed in the fighting in Levantia, Caphiria launched the First Great War, calling on what allies it could to wage war against Veltorina, Pelaxia, and Cartadania, aiming to overrun all its major continental adversaries without Levantine intervention.

In Levantia, FitzRex began to court socialism in order to gain the support lower class revolutionaries, allowing socialists to win a majority in the Concilium Daoni in 1900. Caphiria, bitterly disappointed, continued to support the regime with limited vigor, and their gradual withdrawal led to the Fall of Cana. The collapse of FitzRex's Crown Regency and the rise of the short-lived Urcean Republic led Venceia to reluctantly recognize the restoration of House de Weluta, but it had learned lessons during the war. It rushed to end negotiations with the Alliance before Urcea and Burgundie were able to redirect their attentions from recovering from the war against FitzRex, leaving a number of issues unresolved with Aciria, Pelaxia, and Veltorina. The initial softening of the First Great War and the preparations laid by Caphiria in Levantia would go on to inform its strategy in the Second Great War.

North Levantine Front

Rose Revolution

Main article: Rose Revolution